无信号控制路段行人过街风险分析模型

Model for evaluating risk of pedestrian in crossing unsignalized road

为加强无信号控制路段的行人过街交通安全管理,分析行人过街过程,定量描述过街风险状态。探讨行人过街理想等待时间的概率分布,提出行人过街方式、步行速度、启动时间、对向干扰等过街风险的核心要素,建立行人过街时间计算方法。探讨车头时距的分布规律,并在此基础上确定行人可接受过街间隙的概率分布,构建行人过街安全度的计算模型。实例应用表明,路段的车流量大、车道多、无中途停驻设施等情况,会导致行人可获得的安全过街间隙小,实际等待时间较长,过街安全度值低。

In order to enhance traffic safety management relating to pedestrians crossing unsignalized road, the crossing process was analyzed, and the risk was described quantitatively. Pedestrians＇ expected waiting time distribution was discussed. Essential factors were identified for crossing such as pedestrian crossing mode, walking speed, starting time and opposite interference. A method was developed for calculating pedestrians＇ crossing time. Supposing that the vehicle time headway subject to negative exponential distribution, the pedestrian＇s acceptable crossing gap distribution was estimated. A model was built for evaluating the degree of safety of a pedestrian in crossing. A sample indicates that an unsignalized road segment with heavy traffic flow, more traffic lanes, but without safety islands will lead to a short pedestrian crossing gap, long waiting time, and a lower safety degree value.