水电工程施工突发事件应急响应方案决策研究

Study on decision about response program to emergencies in hydropower project construction

为保障水电工程施工应急响应决策的有效性,充分考虑决策者的心理因素及决策过程的模糊性和随机性,建立基于前景理论及云模型的应急响应方案综合决策方法。首先,分析水电工程施工突发事件特点,确定应急响应方案决策指标;其次,将方案语言评价值云模型化,定义云距离、云可能度、云前景价值,并根据不同的应急响应方案,差异选择心理参考点,构建应急响应方案云前景决策矩阵;最后,求解各准则最优权系数,优选应急响应方案。结果表明,根据所建立的决策方法制定的决策方案能够有效控制事态发展,其预期效果与实际情况基本吻合。

To guarantee effectiveness of decision making on response to emergencies in hydropower project construction, makers＇ psychological factors and the fuzziness and randomness of decision-making process were examined fully,and a method was developed for emergency response decision, which was based on the prospect theory and the cloud model. Firstly, germinal features of the emergencies in hydropower project construction were analyzed and decision-making indicators were identified. Then, the language evaluation values were cloud modeled and the cloud distance, cloud possible degree and cloud prospects value were defined. A cloud prospects decision matrix was constructed for emergency response plans after selecting different mental reference points depending on the differences between the emergency plans. Lastly, emergency plans were optimized based on solving the optimal weights of each criterion. Results show that the decision-making plan which was made by using the decision method can control the development of the situation effectively, and the expected effect conforms basically with the reality.