摘要
简要分析了目前风电场风能资源评估中采用的扇区回归法、直接回归法和简化比值法3种风速订正方法的主要特征。结合广东省某风电场项目实例,估算了3种方法的回归参数,并检验线性回归方程的显著性及标准误差。预测结果显示,扇区回归法预测偏差相对较小,简化比值法偏差相对较大。由于综合考虑了物理概念和数学指标,扇区回归法宜在风电场风能资源评估阶段优先选用;扇区回归法失效时,可使用直接回归法;简化比值法误差相对较大,适用于快速估算。
Main features of Direction-Based Regression（DBR）,Direct Regression（DR）and Simplified-Ratio Regression（SRR） used in wind resources assessment are analyzed.Combined with measured data in a wind farm in Guangdong Province,regression parameters are estimated,and significances and standard errors are analyzed.The prediction results indicate DBR is of the smaller deviation,while SRR is of the bigger deviation.DBR is appropriate to wind resources assessment,due to the synthesis of physical concept and math index.In the case of invalid DBR,DR is alternative.SRR is suitable for fast calculation.
出处
《内蒙古电力技术》
2016年第2期39-42,共4页
Inner Mongolia Electric Power
关键词
风电场
风速订正
回归分析
显著性检验
标准误差
wind farm
wind speed correction
regression analysis
significance check
standard error
