垄断与通货膨胀:理论与证据

Monopoly and Inflation: Theory and Evidence

本文从微观层面构建多维状态非线性系统理论模型,应用非线性模型预测控制方法研究了垄断与通货膨胀之间的关系。理论分析表明,垄断与通胀存在明显的正向关系。本文进一步应用变系数半参数估计方法为上述理论预期提供了经验支持,并发现我国在生产效率较低的行业中,垄断会导致显著的通胀效应,但这种效应在生产效率较高的行业中则明显减弱。上述结论对我国当前"下限保增长、上限防通胀"的宏观调控目标具有重要的启示意义。

In this paper, a nonlinear system model with multidimensional states is built from the micro level, and resolved by a nonlinear model predictive control method. It is revealed that there is an obvious positive relationship between monopoly and inflation. The evidence from semiparametric estimation of the varying - coefficient panel data model shows that, monopoly behavior in a low - efficiency industry does have a significant effect on inflation while the effect for a high - efficiency industry is much weaker. The result has a significant implication for China＇ s macroeconomic control in maintaining the current growth and preventing potential inflation.