金融发展、资产泡沫与实体经济：一个文献综述

Financial Development,Asset Bubble and the Real Economy: A Survey

近年来的金融危机和不同国家的发展路径促使经济学家们反思资产泡沫与实体经济之间的关系。过去几年主流经济学中开始涌现出一些富有洞见的相关理论和实证文献。本文通过一条逻辑主线对基于这些文献的进展进行了系统评述。资产泡沫产生于金融市场的不完全性,它既影响实体经济的效率和增长,也影响实体经济的波动。其中,金融发展程度(金融市场的完全性)扮演了重要的角色。金融发展程度会影响到资产泡沫的产生;而资产泡沫既可以缓解经济中的扭曲,也可以加剧经济中的扭曲,使得经济增长偏离黄金律。制度质量则会强化金融发展程度的影响。金融发展程度与制度质量在开放经济的情况下,还会影响到资本在国际间的流向和结构,从而对实体经济的增长和波动产生更复杂的影响。本文中所综述的理论洞见对于中国这类金融市场欠发达、正面临金融自由化与结构转型的新兴市场经济体尤其具有重要的政策含义。本文最后讨论了中国金融改革和金融发展中需要注意的一些问题。

Recent financial crises have propelled economists to reflect on the relationship between asset bubble and the real economy. Last few years have seen an emerging strand of literature on this. This paper surveys these developments with a unified framework. Asset bubble affects the efficiency and the volatility of the real economy. Financial development plays a crucial role in these relationships. Financial development affects the emergence of asset bubble. Asset bubble can either ＂crowd in＂ or ＂crowd out＂ real investments. Quality of institutions will reinforce the effects of financial development. Financial development and institutional quality also affect the flow of capital in an open economy, leading to more complex effects on the growth and volatility of the real economy. This paper is particularly relevant for emerging economies with financial underdevelopment that are facing financial liberalization and structural changes. The survey ends up with some policy implications for China＇ s financial development and reform.