数字与历史:近代潮汕地区海外移民规模再考察——以数据处理方法为视角

Numbers and History: Rethinking the Magnitude of Overseas Chinese Immigrants from the Chaozhou-Shantou Region——Data Analysis as Focus

论文对近代潮汕地区海外移民相关数据的统计出处、统一口径及可信度进行了分析,认为数据的解读需要方法论的指导,必须清楚数据的"统计出处"和"统计口径"。统计出处不同,相关数据的性质和可信度迥异;统计口径不同,统计标值的内容和范围也大不一样。近代潮汕地区海外移民相关数据出处有三:海关系统、侨务系统和领事系统。其中海关统计数据基于税收目的而产生,可信度较差。在统计对象上,海关系统和侨务系统统计的为"出入口数字",而领事系统统计的是"侨民户口数字",只有后者才是真正的"移民数据"。遗憾的是,今人在计算或估测近代潮汕地区海外移民规模时,往往径直采用海关数据,忽视海关数据的可信度问题;在数据解读的时候,又不加校正,甚至不考虑数据的统计口径而误读数字,结果夸大了近代潮汕地区海外移民的规模。

This article is focused on the data that are related the Chinese immigrants from Chaozhou- Shanzhou region in modern times. It examines their sources, regulates their records, and analyzes their credibility, and argues that the analysis of data calls for a theoretical awareness, especially with regard to the statistic sources and the modules of the data. The nature and the credibility of the data are heavily reliable on the sources of the statistics; the modules of the statistics will also greatly affect the content and the scope of their values. There are three sources concerning the data on the Chinese immigrants from Chaozhou- Shantou region, including the customs system, the bureau of overseas Chinese affairs system, and the consulate systeml Among them, the data from the customs has the least credibility because they were calculated for the purpose of taxation. As for the target of the statistics, the ones from the customs system and the bureau of overseas Chinese affairs system were ＂numbers of immigration and emigration＂, and the ones from the consulate system were ＂ numbers of diaspora households＂ . Only was the latter reliable ＂data on immigration＂. It is a regret, however, that scholars today often directly adopt the customs data, and forget to consider the problem of their credibility while calculating the magnitude of the Chinese immigrants from this region. They also fail to regulate these data and dismiss their problems with modules in analyzing them. This leads to the misinterpreting of the data and the exaggerating of the magnitude of the overseas immigration.