产业结构调整、农业现代化对福建省农民收入增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

The Influence of the Industrial Structure Adjustment and the Agricultural Modernization on the Growth of Farmers' Income in Fujian Province——An Empirical Analysis based on VAR Model

"十三五"规划期间,产业结构调整、农业现代化是推动福建省农民收入增长的两大引擎。本文运用Eviews软件,在构建VAR模型的基础上,对1995-2014年间福建省产业结构调整、农业现代化与农民收入增长之间的关系进行了动态考察。实证结果显示:产业结构调整、农业现代化和福建省农民收入增长之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系;产业结构调整、农业现代化对福建省农民收入增长具有重要影响。无论在短期还是长期,福建省农民收入增长主要依靠自我累积,农业现代化对其的影响也较为显著,而产业结构调整对其的影响则具有一定的时滞性。根据福建省的发展状况,本文对实证结果进行了解释并提出了相应的政策建议。

During the period of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the industrial structure adjustment and the agricultural modernization are two engines to promote the growth of farmers＇ income in Fujian province.This paper makes a dynamic analysis on the relationship between the industrial structure adjustment,the agricultural modernization and the growth of farmers＇ income in Fujian province from 1995 to 2014,using the Eviews software to build a VAR model.The empirical results are as follows.Firstly,there is a longterm stable equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure adjustment,the agricultural modernization and the growth of farmers＇ income in Fujian province.Secondly,the industrial structure adjustment and the agricultural modernization has an important impact on the growth of farmers＇ income in Fujian province.In both the short and long term,the growth of farmers＇ income mainly relies on its own accumulation,and the impact of agricultural modernization is also significant.However,the impact of industrial structure adjustment has a certain time lag.According to the development of Fujian province,this paper explains the empirical results and puts forward some policy recommendations.