兰州市工业能源碳排放强度及效应研究

Intensity and effect of industrial carbon emissions in Lanzhou City

运用容量耦合拓展模型对兰州市2003—2013年环境系统耦合度进行评价,通过核算兰州市2003—2013年各年工业碳排放量,分析了4类工业碳排放强度变化特征,并运用LMDI模型对碳排放效应进行了多维度分解.结果表明,兰州市环境系统总体质量水平较低,环境状态指数和环境耦合度指数较低;兰州市工业碳排放总量逐年递增,碳排放与工业增加值、GDP、人口数量和城市建成区面积等呈显著正相关关系;原煤、原油、焦炭和天然气是兰州市的主要碳源,人均碳强呈显著增长态势,而工业碳强、GDP碳强、地均碳强均呈下降趋势;能源结构效应和人口规模效应在低位值附近波动变化,而能源强度效应和人均经济效应均在高位值附近波动,且后两项指标累积效应显著大于前两项指标,总体发挥正向碳增长效应.

The study evaluates the system-environment coupling of Lanzhou City from 2003 to 2013. According to the amount of industrial carbon emissions in Lanzhou City（ 2003—2013）,four kinds of emission variations were analyzed by using LMDI model. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions in Lanzhou City has been increasing year by year. Carbon emissions have a significantly positive correlation with industrial added value,GDP,population and urban built-up area. Coal,crude oil,coke and natural gas are the main carbon sources,and carbon intensity per capita increased significantly. However,industrial carbon intensity,GDP carbon intensity and carbon intensity indicate a trend of decline. Energy structure and population size effect are in the vicinity of high volatility,and the cumulative effects of the latter two indicators are significantly greater than the former two. The overall level of carbon growth is significantly positive.