我国粮食综合生产能力影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Study on Factors Influencing Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity in China

粮食综合生产能力是粮食安全的核心基础和重要内容,科学把握其影响因素及程度是采取相应措施和制定政策的逻辑前提。运用因子分析法对我国粮食综合生产能力影响因素进行实证分析发现,现代化因素贡献率为74.82%,传统生产方式的贡献率为10.96%,两类影响因素存在显著差异。但从因子得分来看,现代化组成指标的得分相对较低,仍是我国粮食综合生产能力提高的桎梏。因此稳定粮食综合生产能力的基础要素,强化粮食综合生产能力的支撑要素以及健全粮食综合生产能力的保障要素是未来政策的取向。

Comprehensive grain production capacity is the core foundation and important content of food security. To have a better control of these factors is the logical premise for taking effective measures and making sound policies. By using Factor Analysis, we conduct an empirical study on the factors influencing comprehensive grain production capacity. We find that the contribution rate of modernization is 74. 82%, and that of traditional production methods is 10. 96%. The differences are obvious. In terms of the score of factors, the score of modernization factors is relatively low, restraining the improvement of China＇s comprehensive grain production capacity. The policy in future will focus on the elemental factors, the supporting factors and the ensuring factors of comprehensive grain production capacity.