武汉市农用地集约利用与农村经济发展的动态计量分析

Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Intensive Utilization of Agricultural Land and Rural Economic Development in Wuhan City

根据武汉市2003—2013年的统计数据,结合数据平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等计量方法,对武汉市农用地集约利用水平和农村经济发展水平间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,武汉市农用地集约利用水平和农村经济发展水平整体上都呈现波动上升的总趋势,农用地集约利用水平与农村经济发展水平存在长期均衡关系及单向因果关系,农村经济发展是农用地集约利用的格兰杰原因。

Based on the statistical data of Wuhan city from 2003 to 2013, an empirical analysis of the relationship between intensive utilization of agricultural land and rural economic development in Wuhan was conducted through econometric meth- ods including unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. The results showed that both intensive utilization of agricultural land and rural economic development in Wuhan ascended in fluctuations as a whole, there was long-term equilibrium and Granger causality between intensive utilization of agricultural land and rural economic development. The Granger causality test result revealed that rural economic development could cause intensive utilization of a- gricultural land.