棉铃虫发生与气温因子的关系研究

Study on the Relationship between the Bollworm and Air Temperature Factors

采用连续10 a的资料研究了棉铃虫（Helicoverpa armigera）发生和气温的关系。结果表明,1、2和5月的平均气温与棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈正相关,6、7月的月平均气温与棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈负相关,7、8月的月平均气温与棉铃虫三代百株卵量的相关系数依次为-0.295 3和0.493 8。三代棉铃虫发生最适宜的月平均气温为25.8～26.7℃;8～9月的月平均气温与棉铃虫四代的相关系数依次为-0.375 9和0.4798;10～12月的月平均气温与次年棉铃虫二代的相关系数依次为0.353 3、-0.151 8和-0.301 0。6月中旬至7月中旬的逐旬平均气温均与棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈负相关;7月上中旬的逐旬平均气温与棉铃虫三代百株卵量呈负相关,7月下旬至8月下旬的逐旬平均气温与棉铃虫三代百株卵量呈正相关。8月和9月上中旬逐旬平均气温与棉铃虫四代依次呈负相关和正相关。8月中旬日最高气温≥30℃的日数与棉铃虫四代百株卵量呈负相关,8月下旬至9月上中旬逐日≥30℃的日数与棉铃虫四代百株卵量呈正相关。10月下旬和11月中下旬逐日最低气温≤0.0℃的日数均与次年棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈正相关,初霜日与次年终霜日之间≤0.0℃的天数与次年棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈正相关。初霜日与次年终霜日的日数与次年棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈负相关。12月上旬至次年2月中旬逐旬日最低气温≤-10.0℃的总日数与棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈负相关,其中2月中旬最低气温≤-10.0℃的日数与棉铃虫二代百株卵量呈负相关。建立了4个气温因子与棉铃虫相关达显著以上水平的回归方程。

The relationships between air temperature and bollworm（Helicoverpa armigera） by continuous ten years dates were studied. The results showed that month average temperatures of January, February and May and 2th bollworm appeared positive correlation, and negtive correlation of June and July. Correlation coefficiens between month average temperature of July and August together with 3th bollworm were-0.295 3 and 0.493 8 successively. The best temperature scope was 25.8~26.7℃ for 3th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens of August and September were 0.375 9 and 0.479 8 in proper oder between month average temperatures and 4th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens of October to December were 0.353 3,-0.151 8 and-0.301 0successively between month average temperatures and 2th bollworm of coming year. Correlation coefficiens appeared negative correlations between average temperature of the second ten days of June to July second ten days and 2th bollworm ten days by ten daysly. Correlation coefficiens appeared negative correlation between average temperature ten days by ten days of the first and second ten days in July and 3th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appearaed positive correlation between average temperature of third ten days July to August and 3th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appeared positive correlation and negative correlation successively between average temperature of August and the first, the second ten days of September of ten days by ten days and 4th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appeared negative between days of the highest temperature ≥30 ℃ of ten days by ten days in the second ten days of August and 4th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appeared negative between days of the highest temperature ≥30 ℃ of ten days by ten days in the third ten days of August to the first and the second ten days in September and 4th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appeared positive obviosly between days of the lowest temperature ≤0 ℃ of ten days by ten days in the third ten days of October and in the second and third ten days in November and 2th bollworm of coming year. Correlation coefficiens appeared positive between days of the lowest temperature≤0 ℃ from the first frosting day last year to the last frosting day incoming year and 2th bollworm. Correlation coefficiens appeared negative between days from the first frosting day former year to the final frosting day coming year and 2th bollworm.Correlation coefficiens appeared negative between the lowest temperature ≤-10.0 ℃ all days from the first ten days December last year to the second ten days February and 2th bollworm. Among of which, the days of the lowest temperature ≤-10.0 ℃during the second ten days on February appeared negtive obviosly. Four regressive equations which air temperature factors and woolworm correlatting obviosly and above had been maken.