中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地进口的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Virtual Land Import of Grain Trade in China

基于2001—2014年的年度数据,通过多元线性回归模型,在国际环境和国内环境的大背景下,对中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地进口量的影响因素进行实证分析。研究发现,人口对中国粮食虚拟耕地净进口量的影响最为显著;全球对中国粮食的需求量及中国谷物单产对粮食虚拟耕地净进口量的影响显著;中国国内生产总值对粮食虚拟耕地净进口量的影响较为显著;全球谷物平均单产、中国有效灌溉面积对粮食虚拟耕地净进口量的影响不显著。在此基础上,提出了利用耕地资源的相应措施,以确保中国的粮食安全。

Based on the annual data from 2001 to 2014, through multiple linear regression model, and in the context of international and domestic environment, the analysis on the influence factors of virtual farmland imports in grain trade of China was conducted. The results showed that population have the most significant impact on China＇s net imports of grain virtual farmland; the global demand for Chinese food, and the cereal grain yields of China have significant impacts on China＇s net imports of grain virtual farmland; China＇s GDP have less important impact on the net import of grain virtual farmland; the global average grain yields and the effective irrigation area have no significant effects. On this basis, the corresponding measures on how to make use of arable land resources to ensure food security of China were put forward.