地价、房价与地方债规模--基于省级面板数据的新发现

Land Prices, House Prices and Local Government Debt:A New Discovery Based on Provincial Panel Data

以2010年、2012-2014年中国省级面板数据研究地价、房价与地方债规模的关系,结果表明:1.地价对地方债规模影响不显著。一方面,作为地方债的抵押品,土地升值会刺激地方政府扩大债务规模,增加土地收储;另一方面,土地收入增加后,地方政府对于债务收入的依赖下降,举债动机降低,对地方债规模有负面影响。这两种机制对于地方债规模的影响相互抵消。2.房价对地方债规模起到显著的正向影响。强劲增长的住房有效需求拉动房价持续快速上涨,政府既要满足居民住房需求,又要完善新增住房配套设施和服务,资金需求增加导致举债规模增加。地方政府干预市场的行为对于房价的提高起到了促进作用,房价要回归到理性增长水平,在经济和政策上应引导地方政府深化房地产改革。

This paper aims at studying the relationship between the local government debt issue and house market fluctu- ations through an empirical analysis of the panel data of macroeeonomic fundamentals related variables from China＇s 30 provinces during the years 2010 and 2012-2014. The results indicate that 1. land transfer price has no significant influ- ence on local government debt scale, because the increase of land value causes both the increase of the money available for lending and the decrease of the real borrowing motivation, and they offset the effect of each other. 2. house price has a sig- nificant positive impact on local government debt scale. High growth rate in effective house demand keeps house price ris- ing rapidly. The local government should not only meet the residents＇ housing demand, but also improve new housing facil- ities and services. The increase of money demand leads to the expansion of local government debt scale. Indirect interven- tion of price by local government plays a significant role in the growth of debt. In order to keep its debt at a moderate level, local government should deepen the reform of the real estate in the areas of economy and policy.