柴达木盆地鱼卡水源地地下水数值模型建立与预测

Groundwater numerical modeling and forecasting for the water sources of Yuqia in Qaidam Basin

为满足日需水量8万m3拟建鱼卡电厂的需求,本研究采用Modflow模拟软件,建立鱼卡河谷区地下水数学模型,并对模型进行识别和校验;而后利用模型预测水源地在8万m3每天的开采条件、平均水文序列及随机水文序列时水源地的中心降深,预测表明:在最恶劣水文条件下,水源地运行时的中心降深远小于允许值,从而论证了允许开采量的可行性与可靠性。

To meet the needs of average daily water consumption of eighty thousand cubic meters of the proposed Yuqia electric power plant,a groundwater numerical model was established by using the Modflow software. The model has been identified and verified. The central drawdown of water source was forecasted under average or random hydrological series with model of the average daily water consumption of eighty thousand cubic meters. The forecast showed that the drawdown was far less than allowable value. In the extremely bad hydrogeological condition,the feasibility and reliability of allowable withdrawal was demonstrated.