煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用:模型·实证

Stress of Coal Mining on Ecosystem Functions: Model and Demonstration

为研究煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用,基于系统动力学原理构建一般情况下煤炭开采对生态系统功能胁迫作用的系统动力学模型,分析不同情境下煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用特征,并以淮河流域典型煤炭资源型城市——淮南市为例进行实证研究.结果表明:煤炭开采对生态系统功能有胁迫作用,政府是重要影响因素;不同情境下煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用不同,表现为情境一(理想状态)<情境二(良性状态)<情境三(一般状态)<情境四(停滞状态)<情境五(糟糕状态);生态治理投资系数和煤炭开采技术投资系数的比值越大,则煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用越小.实证结果通过有效性检验,表明该研究建立的系统动力学模型具有可靠性.当前淮南市生态治理投资和煤炭开采技术投资的比值为0.511,表明淮南市生态系统功能系统和煤炭开采系统处于一般状态.研究显示,政府在维持生态系统功能稳态中发挥着一定作用.煤炭开采对生态系统功能的胁迫作用特征:当生态治理投资系数和煤炭开采技术投资系数的比值为0时,生态系统功能系统和煤炭开采系统处于糟糕状态;当比值为(0,1)时,处于一般状态;当比值为1时,处于良性状态;当比值大于1时,两大系统进入理想状态.

Environmental problems caused by coal mining are becoming an international issue which needs to be solved efficiently. To study the stress of coal mining on ecosystem functions, this study developed a structured general system dynamic （SD） model of coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions based on SD theory, analyzed the characteristics and laws of coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions in different situations, and took Huainan City, a typical coal resource-based city of the Huaihe River Basin, as an example to test the results. The results showed that coal mining exerted stress on ecosystem functions, and that the government is an important factor. Coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions was different in different situations, with the order being situation 1 （ideal state） 〈 situation 2 （benign state） 〈 situation 3 （general state） 〈 situation 4 （ dead state） 〈 situation 5 （bad state）. The larger the ratio of ecological management investment coefficient and coal mining technique investment coefficient was, the smaller coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions was. The empirical results were tested and showed that the SD model was reliable, and the empirical results were that Huainan city＇s investment ratio of ecological management and coal mining technique was 0. 511, representing that both ecosystem functions system and coal mining system were in general state. The conclusions were that the government played a role in protecting ecosystem functions; the characteristics and laws of coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions were that when the ratio was 0, both systems were in bad state; when it was between 0 and 1, they were in general state ; when it was 1, they were in benign state; and when it was over 1, they were in ideal state. In the future, continued research will focus on the stress threshold of coal mining＇s stress on ecosystem functions including the research of stress index, stress threshold model＇s structure, stress threshold＇s estimation and concrete analysis.