货币政策对P2P网贷市场利率的影响研究

The Influence of Monetary Policy on the Interest Rate of Online P2P Lending Market

本研究以人人贷网贷平台2.5万笔借款为研究对象,分析了2015年8月26日我国央行降息降准的货币政策实施前后一个月内P2P市场利率变化。研究发现,P2P市场利率不仅仅受到来自商业银行的供给效应与价格效应的直接影响,还可能受到一些调节机制的间接影响。实证数据分析表明,我国P2P市场的利率形成机制是高度市场化的,并且市场具备买方市场的特征。降息降准的货币政策实施对P2P市场的利率下降产生了显著影响:在控制其他因素后,政策使得P2P市场利率平均下降54个基点。研究还进一步发现了货币政策实施对消费属性的借款影响较小,而且对我国东部和中西部地区的影响不存在差异;并且,货币政策实施提高了P2P买方的市场地位:借款金额每提高1%,平均利率额外下降11个基点。此外,货币政策实施后,市场整体的风险偏好有所提升:借款每增加一个月,需要补偿风险的利率额外下降一个基点。

Using data of 25 000 records from a peer-to-peer lending website（ rereudai. com）,we compare the interest rates of P2 P markets in one month before and after 25 th August 2015 when People＇s Bank of China announced the monetary policy. We find that the interests of the P2 P market are influenced not only by the supply and the price effect from the commercial bank,but also by some moderator mechanism indirectly.The practice of data analysis shows that the interest rate formation mechanism is highly market-oriented and the P2 P lending market is a buyer＇s market. After cuts to interest rates and reserve requirement ratios,control by other factors,the average interest rate in the platform declines 54 basis points. Firstly,we suggest that the policy has less impact on consumption loans than investment loans. Secondly,there is no difference of changes in interest rates between east and middle-west China when this monetary policy implements. Thirdly,the implementation of monetary policy enhances the lender＇s market position. When the policy implements,the amount of loan raises 1%,the interest rate reduces 11 base points. Lastly,the implementation of monetary policy also improves the risk appetite of the market. When the policy implements,the term of loans increases one month,the required interest rates for compensate the longer term risk reduce 1 base point.