偏好与消费能力对居民消费行为的影响研究——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的模拟分析

The Influence of Preferences and Consumption Ability on Residents' Consuming Behavior: Based on the Simulation Analysis of the New Keynesian DSGE Model

众所周知,扩大内需是当前中国最大的经济结构调整。与扩大内需密切相关的一个核心问题是如何促进国内居民消费,而解决此问题的一个关键环节是梳理出能够影响居民消费行为的潜在因素。笔者建立了一个涵盖消费者偏好和消费能力变量的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。通过贝叶斯估计技术识别出消费者偏好、消费能力等五类外生冲击,并重点考察了消费者偏好与消费能力冲击对居民消费行为的影响。结论表明:消费者偏好及消费能力冲击均对居民消费波动产生了明显影响,但消费者偏好使得居民消费波动的波幅更加显著;在短期和长期内消费者偏好冲击均可以解释三分之一以上的居民消费波动,而消费能力仅能够解释不足2%的波动;相比消费能力,消费者偏好对居民消费行为的影响更大。笔者基于上述结论认为,在以扩大内需为目标之一的经济发展方式转型背景下,通过提升居民的消费信心并合理引导消费情绪以提高消费者偏好显得尤为重要。

It is well known that expanding domestic demand is China＇s largest economic structure adjustment in the present. A core problem closely related to expanding domestic demand is how to promote domestic consumption; and a key link of the solution to this problem is to comb out the potential factors that can influence consumer behavior. To achieve this goal,the author established a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（ DSGE） model containing consumers＇ preferences and consumption ability. By using Bayesian estimation technique to identify five kinds of exogenous shocks including consumers＇ preferences and consumption ability and so on. We focus on study the influence of the shocks of preferences and consumption ability on residents＇ consuming behavior. The results show that preferences and consumption ability both have significant influence on the fluctuation of residents＇ consumption,but preferences make the amplitude of residents＇ consumption fluctuation greater. In addition,preferences＇ impact can explain more than a third of the residents＇ consumption fluctuation in the short and long term,and the consumption ability can only explain less than 2% of volatility. Therefore,compared with consumption ability,preference has more influences on consumer behavior. Based on the study,we believe that under the present economic development pattern of expanding domestic demand,enhancing the residents＇ consumer confidence and reasonably guiding consumer sentiment to improve consumer preferences is particularly important.