雷达估测降水方法改进在降水预报中的应用

Application of Improved Radar Rainfall Estimation Method in Precipitation Forecast

利用2008—2013年自动站雨量资料及相应的雷达体扫资料,用最优化法统计得出海南地区不同区域不同月份的Z-I关系,并将统计结果用于2014年5—9月的非热带气旋影响的的降水估测检验,采用平均绝对误差和均方根误差方法得到计算结果,表明经过优化的Z-I关系后,雷达估测降水比Z=200I1.6时更加接近实际雨量。优化Z-I关系前,雷达与雨量计平均值比值范围在40%-70%之间,即估测降水比实际雨量偏弱,优化Z-I关系后,雷达与雨量计平均值比值范围提高到50%-90%以上,说明雷达估测降水方法改进后,效果有了显著提高。

Based on surface observed hourly precipitation data and Doppler weather radar data in Haikou from 2008 to 2013, use optimization method to get the ZI relations with different regions of Hainan statistical,and use the result to inspect the the Precipitation Estimation of non-tropical cyclones between May to September in 2014. use The average absolute error and root mean square error method to obstain the result, it Show that after optimization Z-I relations, it is closer that Radar estimates of rainfall precipitation than Z = 200I1.6. Before Optimization Z-I relations, the range of the ratio of Radar and the average of rain gauge is between 40-70%, That estimate precipitation is weaker than the actual rainfall. After Optimization Z-I relations, the range of the ratio of Radar and the average of rain gauge is between 50-90%, Obviously, the optimized Z-I relationship improved the quality of RQPE.