高速公路机电设备维修备件需求预测方法

Prediction Methods for Demand of Maintenance Spare Parts of Electromechanical Equipment for Expressways

对高速公路机电设备维修备件的需求进行连续型和间断型预测分析。连续型需求预测采用指数平滑法和移动平均法,间断型需求预测采用贝叶斯预测法。2种方法均能准确预测维修备件的需求,有助于确定备件的合理储备量和制定科学的采购计划,从而在保障企业运营安全和高服务水平的同时,有效降低运营成本,节省流动资金。

This paper conducts continuous and intermittent predication analysis for the demand of maintenance spare parts of electromechanical equipment for expressways. The continuous demand prediction adopts the exponential smoothing method and the moving average method,and the intermittent demand predictions adopts the Bayesian prediction method. These methods can predict the demand of maintenance spare parts accurately and are helpful for determining reasonable reserves of spare parts and laying down scientific procurement plans so as to reduce operating costs and save liquid capitals effectively while guaranteeing operating safety and high service level of the enterprise.