我国造纸企业财务风险预警研究——基于Z-Score模型理论

Research on the Early Warning of Financial Risk in Chinese Paper Making Enterprises—Based on the Theory of Z- Score Model

造纸业在国民经济中具有不可或缺的战略性基础产业地位。因此,基于Z-Score模型理论,选取2012—2014年我国沪深两市20家造纸企业作为研究样本,并利用Excel统计软件对样本企业的财务数据进行Z值计算和分析。结果发现:Z-Score模型对我国造纸行业的财务风险预警有一定效果,但也存在一定的局限性,为此,针对我国造纸行业的财务风险提出了相应的预防措施。

Paper making industry occupies anindispensible strategic basic position in the national economy. Therefore,based on the theory of Z- Score model,20 listed papermaking enterprises from Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2012- 2014 were chosenas samples to study,and their financial data were applied to Z value calculation and analysis by means of Excel statistical software. The results show that： Z- Score model of China’s paper industry has certain effect on the financial risk early warning of our paper making industry,but owns certain limitations. In this way,the corresponding preventive measures are put forward in order to avoid the financial risks of China’s paper industry.