美国贸易逆差成因:基于分析框架的综述

The Causes of US Trade Deficit:A Review Based on the Analytical Framework

对美国贸易逆差的分析需要解决三个递进问题:一是美国贸易逆差为何产生;二是贸易逆差为何有如此大的规模;三是巨额贸易逆差为何长期存在。通过对多因素的归整归类,可构建分析逆差成因的整体框架:国际产业转移与国际分工所导致的各国经济结构的差异是美国贸易逆差的决定性因素,解释了贸易逆差产生的根源;美元特权地位、储蓄-投资缺口因素、财政赤字、金融发展差异、人口结构变化等可归之于美国贸易逆差的支撑性因素,并由此解释美国贸易逆差的规模;汇率、重商主义、跨国公司内部贸易和统计方法差异等因素可看作政策性因素,也是贸易逆差形成的辅助性因素。

Three gradual issues need to be solved in the process to analyze the US trade deficit：why does it come into being;why is the scale so large and why does it exist for such a long time.By integrating and classifying various factors,an overall framework can been established to analyze the causes of trade deficit.The difference in economic structure in different countries caused by international industrial transfer and international division of labor is the decisive factor of US trade deficit,which explains the root cause of trade deficit.Supportive factors to the US trade deficit include US dollar privilege,savings-investment gap,financial deficit,financial development difference,and demographic changes,which can explain the scale of US trade deficit.Some factors,such as exchange rate,mercantilism,and the difference in inner trading and statistical method in the multinational corporations,can be grouped as policy factors,which can be regarded as assistant factors of US trade deficit.