小麦国际贸易关系的演化：1988-2014

Evolution of Wheat International Trade Relations： 1988- 2014

本文运用复杂网络分析方法,对1988-2014年间小麦的国际贸易数据进行探析,从小麦国际贸易网络的拓扑结构和权重结构角度分析了小麦国际贸易关系的演化规律。结果发现：小麦的国际贸易总额整体上呈现出大幅增长趋势,部分小麦贸易大国倾向与更多的国家和地区开展国际贸易,以规避风险;随着时间的推移,小麦国际贸易网络中各个国家和地区之间的贸易联系越来越紧密,且国家和地区之间的贸易互补性不断提高;小麦国际贸易网络异质性的下降,说明小麦的国际贸易关系正在向着更加均衡的方向发展。

Based on the international wheat trade data from 1988 to 2014,this paper applies the complex network method to study the evolving characteristics of international wheat trade relations from the view of the network topological structure and weighted structure. The results demonstrate that the overall global wheat trade has shown a significant growth trend and some powerful wheat trade countries tend to establish more trade relations to avoid potential risks; the international wheat trade relations are becoming closer,and the trade complementarity among countries is improving; the heterogeneity of the weighted network is descending,which reflects that international wheat trade relations are becoming more balanced.