旅游依赖型目的地经济增长与旅游业发展关联性分析——以黄山市为例

Correlation Analysis of Tourism Industry Development and Regional Economic Growth——Taking Huangshan City as an Example

选取2000—2014年黄山市旅游业统计数据,运用Eviews等统计软件对地区GDP与旅游总收入、旅游外汇收入进行回归分析。结果显示,旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入与地区GDP之间均存在长期协整关系。其中,旅游外汇收入每增加1%,GDP增长约0.48%;旅游总收入每增加1%,GDP增长约0.52%。从增长弹性看,旅游总收入平均增长弹性系数为4.04,旅游外汇收入平均增长弹性系数为1.94,旅游业发展速度超过了经济增长速度,对地区经济发展具有拉动作用。基于分析结果,提出开发和保护好特色资源、提升和打造好产品体系、拓展和开发好客源市场、提升服务与管理水平等建议。

According to the tourism statistical data from 2000 to 2012 of Huangshan City,regression analysis was conducted between tourism revenue,tourism foreign exchange income and GDP using the Eviews software. The results showed that there existed a long-term co-integrating relationship among tourism revenue,tourism foreign exchange income and GDP. Tourism revenue increased by 1%,GDP would grow approximately 0. 52%,tourism foreign exchange income increased by 1%,GDP would grow approximately 0. 48%. Looking from growth elasticity,the average growth elasticity coefficient of tourism revenue was 4. 04,and the average growth elasticity coefficient of tourism foreign exchange income was 1. 94. Tourism industry developed faster than economic growth,suggestions such as developing and protecting characteristic resources,improving and building product system,expanding and developing tourism market and improving service and mangement level was put forward.