金融发展水平、产业结构失衡与区域经济增长

Level of Financial Development,Imbalance in the Industrial Structure and Regional Economic Growth

金融发展与经济增长之间的关系一直是学术界关心的重要问题之一,但国内外学者关于金融发展对经济增长影响的分析结果并不一致。为探索金融发展对经济增长的影响机制,文章通过构建理论模型引入产业结构失衡指标,对区域金融发展水平和产业结构失衡情况进行重新测度,并在此基础上建立面板门槛模型,分析金融发展对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:(1)产业结构失衡对区域经济增长造成的结构负担显著,各地产业结构失衡主要表现为第一产业发展失衡;(2)金融发展对于区域经济增长的直接影响并不显著,金融发展对经济增长的正面作用通过缓解产业结构以及第一产业发展失衡造成的结构负担而得以体现;(3)金融发展对于结构负担的缓解程度随着金融发展水平的提高而分层降低,存在门槛效应。同时,区域金融发展与产业结构调整的利弊权衡表明金融发展存在最优水平。

While the relationship between financial development and economic growth has always been one of the important issues among the academia.,the conclusions about the impact of the former on the latter made by the scholars at home and abroad are not consistent. In order to explore the mechanism that financial development affects economic growth,the paper,introducing an index measuring the imbalance in the industrial structure by constructing a theoretical model,re-measures the situations about the level of regional financial development and the imbalance in the industrial structure,on the basis of which the panel threshold models are established to analyze the impact of financial development on economic growth. The results are indicated as follows.（ 1） The structural burden for regional economic growth is significant that is caused by the imbalance in the industrial structure,which mainly exhibits as the imbalance in the development of the primary industry in the different regions.（ 2） The direct impact of financial development on regional economic growth is not obvious. The positive effect of the former on the latter can be reflected by easing the structural burden caused by the industrial structure and the imbalance in the development of the primary industry.（ 3） The relief degree that the financial development eases the structural burden decreases hierarchically as the improvement of its level,displaying the threshold effect. Meantime,an optimal level exists in the financial development,which is indicated by the tradeoff of advantages and disadvantages between regional financial development and industrial structure adjustment.