基于古诺模型的风火电合作容量优化

Cooperation capacity optimization of wind power and thermal power based on Cournot model

在风火打捆直流外送系统中,送端电网的风电场和火电厂属于不同的利益主体,二者对电源容量的规划存在相互影响.在电力市场环境下,考虑我国现有的可再生能源政策以及风电场和火电机组的实际运行特性,基于博弈理论分别建立了风力发电商和火力发电商之间,采取合作与不合作两种策略下的利润模型,来模拟风火发电商的决策行为.当二者采取不合作策略时,以各自利润最大化为目标,建立古诺博弈模型,得到双方通过预估对手的反应策略规划各自容量,使己方获得最大利润的Nash均衡解;当二者均采取合作策略进行容量规划时,以双方总利润最大化为目标,求取该方式下的最优规划容量,根据己方策略变化给对方利润产生的变动定义了影响系数,并据此给出了二者的利润分配方案.应用该方法对一个算例进行了计算分析,得出在风火打捆外送系统中,风力发电商在博弈中处于主动地位,火力发电商处于被动地位的结论.研究工作及成果可作为参与新能源电源规划各方决策的依据.

In wind-thermal-bundled DC transmission system, plants of wind power and thermal power in the sending end, which have mutual influence on the planning of power capacity, belong to different stakeholders. This paper takes the existing renewable energy policy and the operation characteristics of wind farm and thermal generator into account, and the profit models of wind power supplier and thermal power supplier are respectively established according to different strategies of cooperation or non-cooperation based ongame theory, to simulate the decision making of the two power suppliers. When the two both take non-cooperation strategy, a Cournot model which assumes that one can develop its optimal capacity planning strategy through estimating the rival＇s response is established to obtain the Nash equilibrium, so as to maximize their profits respectively. Besides, the objective changes into maximizing the suppliers＇ total profits when they choose cooperation strategy, and the optimal capacity is calculated. Meanwhile, the influence coefficient which can illustrate the variation of one＇s profit influenced by the changing of the other＇s strategy is introduced,and based on which the profit distribution plan is presented. Moreover, a case is carried out for a wind-thermal-bundled DC transmission system, and the result shows that wind power supplier holds the active position in the game while the thermal power supplier holds the passive position. In addition, the study of this paper can provide the participants of new energy capacity planning with a basis to make decision.