城市集聚和出口的共生机制研究:来自204个城市的证据

Symbiotic Mechanism of Urban Agglomeration and Export: Evidence from 204 Cities

利用2005—2011年间中国204个城市数据,通过构造联立方程模型考察城市集聚与出口的共生机制,结果发现:城市集聚产生的外部性有利于出口,而出口扩张会推动城市的进一步集聚;城市集聚和出口的共生机制在东部城市最强,中、西部地区城市集聚的出口效应显著为正,但出口的城市集聚效应不显著;2008年金融危机后,外需不振使出口的城市集聚效应有所减弱;城市集聚和出口的共生机制在大城市比中小城市更为强烈。这些都表明城市集聚和出口之间存在相互强化、相互促进的共生机制。

On the basis of theoretical analysis,using 2005- 2011 data in China＇ s 204 city areas,this paper constructs simultaneous equations model to handle endogeneity. Externalities generated by urban agglomeration is good for exports,and export expansion w ill further promote the urban agglomeration. The symbiotic mechanism of urban agglomeration and export trade is strongest in eastern cities,the export effect of urban agglomeration in mid- w est cities is significantly positive,and the urban agglomeration effect of exports in mid- w est cities is not significant. After the 2008 financial crisis,w eak external demand w eakens the urban agglomeration effect of exports,and the symbiotic mechanism of urban agglomeration and export trade in large cities is stronger than in small and medium- sized cities. The results indicate that there is a symbiotic mechanism in w hich urban agglomeration and export trade reinforce and promote each other.