美国对俄罗斯问题的决策争议和认知差异

Decision Disputes and Perceptual Differences of U.S. Policy towards Russia

乌克兰危机和叙利亚战争后,美国的决策界对于俄罗斯问题出现了不少争议。鉴于美国国内政治主张的多样性,以及决策过程本身的复杂性,我们通过四个方面来观察美国对俄认知的起落变化与发展趋势:第一,美国核心决策层对当前俄罗斯问题的基本看法;第二,美国研究界包括各智库对俄罗斯战略的不同立场;第三,美国具有广泛影响的前政要的观点;第四,美国选战热潮中的各位总统候选人以及大众媒体对俄罗斯问题的态度。可以看出,在意识形态主导美国对俄关系的状况下,美俄关系难以短时期内实质改善,而双方共识匮乏造成的误解,难以避免未来冲突的延续。因此,中国在美俄之间的理性定位,对于自身乃至地区和全球国际关系的健康化,具有举足轻重的作用。

Since the Ukraine crisis and the Syrian war, there emerge heated discussion within the U.S. decision-makers regarding Russian issues.Given the diversity of U.S. domestic politics, as well as the complexity of the decision-making process itself, this article attempts to observe changes and trends of the U.S. perceptions of Russia from four aspects. First, the U.S. core decision-makers' basic views on current Russian issues; second, different stances of the U.S. academic community including think tanks regarding the U.S.Russian strategies; third, views of the U.S. former influential politicians; fourth,attitudes of the U.S. presidential candidates and the mass media towards Russian issues. As can be seen, when dominated by ideology, it is difficult to improve the U.S.-Russian relationship in the short term. Furthermore, it will be quite difficult to avoid an escalation of the conflict in the future because of misunderstanding,caused by lack of consensus. Therefore, it is imperative for China to have a rational positioning between the U.S. and Russia for it's healthy development and the good of regional and global international relations.