两种世界观与世界失序的回归--新霍布斯式想象与俄罗斯外交的功能性失调

Two Worlds and the Return of World Disorder:Neo-Hobbesian Vision and Dysfunction of Russian Diplomacy

莫斯科的世界观,首先体现在,它认为这个世界是互不相容且常常充满敌意的,在这里,强者更强而落后就要挨打。其次,是对于硬实力的永恒信念。第三,国际体系由主要大国主宰。俄罗斯所期待的世界是一个多极的世界,俄罗斯在其中作为一个权力中心。俄罗斯认为多极世界很有前景,特别是金融危机以来西方的衰落和非西方世界的兴起。但现实世界充满了各种不同的挑战,与俄罗斯想象的世界并不一致。当下的国际环境充满了混乱,是一个失序的世界。在这样一个世界中,较之于美国和欧洲大国,俄罗斯更加脆弱。但俄罗斯仍然在想象中的多极(多中心)世界格局中,勾画其当代政治的图景。

Moscow's worldview, first of all, holds the world is mutually exclusive and often hostile, where the strong becomes stronger and the lagged is beaten. Secondly, perpetual belief in hard power. Thirdly, the international system is dominated by great powers. Russia's expected world is a multi-polar one, where Russia is a center. Russia believes that the multi-polar world is promising, especially with the decline of the West and the rise of non-Western world since the financial crisis. However, the actual world is full of various challenges, different from Russia's perceptual world. The current international environment is full of chaos and disorders. In such a world, compared with the U.S. and European powers, Russia is more vulnerable. Nevertheless, Russia is still outlining the picture of contemporary politics under its conceived multi-polar(polycentric) world structure.