新时期下中国对非洲直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于大样本时间序列数据的实证考察

The Study on the Trade Effect of China 's OFDI in Africa under the New Period——An Empirical Investigation Based on Large Sample Time Series Data

对外直接投资和国际贸易是一国参与全球产业分工、融入世界经济的重要途径。"入世"以来,我国同广大非洲地区的经贸联系日趋密切,对非直接投资与中非贸易规模同步攀升,在保障国内战略性资源有效供给和推进经济转型等方面发挥了显著作用。据此本文选取1996—2013年我国对非洲直接投资流量和中非贸易总额数据,构建了VAR(2)模型,同时综合运用脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及Granger因果检验法考察了我国对非直接投资的贸易效应,结果发现:长短期中,我国对非直接投资存在显著的贸易互补效应,保持着相互促进的总体走势。

OFDI and international trade are the important ways of participating in the division of global industrial chain and integrating the world economy for a country. Since the entry of ＂WTO＂,China have more close economic and trade contact with African region,the scale of OFDI and trade between China and Africa improved steadily,played a significant role in ensuring the effective supply of domestic strategic resources and promoting economic transition objectively. Thus This paper selects the relevant data of OFDI and trade flow between China and Africa during 1996 ~ 2013,constructing the VAR（ 2） model,adopting the impulse response、variance decomposition and Granger test to empirically analyze the trade effect of China＇s direct investment in Africa. The results show that China＇s direct investment in Africa have significant trade effect,and there exists contributive development trend in short and long term.