基于协整与误差修正模型的中国国债规模适度性研究

Research on the Rational Scale of China's Public Bonds:Based on Vector Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model

国债政策是我国宏观经济政策中的重要子系统,是调节资源配置及整个经济运行的重要手段。国债规模的大小决定了其宏观调控作用发挥的程度,因此对国债规模及其影响因素的研究十分必要。本文基于向量自回归模型和向量误差修正模型,运用单位根检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济分析方法,对1981—2013年影响我国国债发行规模的因素进行实证分析。研究表明,国债规模与居民储蓄余额和GDP存在正相关关系,与国债还本付息额存在负相关关系;从短期来看,影响国债规模最显著的因素为财政收支差额,并据此提出了关注国债规模,更好发挥国债作用促进经济增长的建议。

National debt policy is an important subsystem in macroeconomic policy in our country,is important means to adjust the allocation of resources and the whole economic operation. The size of the debt to determine the degree of the macroeconomic regulation and control function,so the study of debt scale and its influencing factors is necessary. This article is based on vector auto regressive model and vector error correction model,using econometric analysis method,from 1981 to 2013 to empirical analysis on the influencing factors of China ＇s national debt issuance. Studies show that household savings balance and lurch higher debt repayment of capital and GDP are the main factors influencing the government debt.From the short-term perspective,the most significant factors influencing the national debt scale for the fiscal balance. And accordingly puts forward the focus on national debt scale,better play a role of debt advice of promoting economic growth.