管控权力转移:面向21世纪的大国协调机制

Managing Power Transitions:Towards a 21st Century Concert of Powers

国际体系中的权力更迭,尤其是权力转移,常常与(军事)冲突相伴。权力转移理论对此现象做出了分析,却没有提出解决之道。因此可以在大国协调的基础上,建立一套全新的非正式多边安全治理机制,以缓和目前全球权力更迭出现的紧张局势。19世纪的欧洲协调机制,以共同的规范和程序为基础,通过建立合作框架,在一代人的时间里,避免了大国之间的战争。文章以现代大国协调机制为框架,探索管控未来权力更迭的可行性,并借此为权力转移理论补充了两点新内容:衰落霸权国对未来秩序的(不)满意情绪的重要性;以更广泛的大国多边合作框架,取代权力转移理论传统的双边"决斗"情势。唯有在此基础上,才能实现机制化的权力转移管控。

Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with(military) conflicts.Power transition theory(PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy.We suggest easing the tensions related to the ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution,based on the idea of a concert of powers.The historical European Concert of the 19 th Century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework,based on shared norms and common procedures.This article explores the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts.In order to do so,two new elements in Power Transition Theory are introduced:(1) the importance of the(dis-) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order,and(2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes PTT's traditional bilateral 'duel' situation.On this basis,institutionalized power transition management becomes possible.It then works out norms,strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and updates it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21 st Century.