中国制造业海外投资国家特征与风险分析

The Features and Risks of the Target Countries of Chinese Manufacturing Overseas Investment

近年来中国企业对海外制造业投资规模不断扩大,CGIT数据显示,其行业与地域特征明显,国际集中度较高,投资地域向发达国家转移。根据CROIC-IWEP风险测算显示:制造业投资集中的19个国家中,9个国家经济风险与18个国家非经济风险属于警戒或高风险区。行业投资中,金属与非金属制造业、化学制造业整体风险相对较大,而食品制造业的非经济风险需要关注,机械设备与电子电信等则需关注其中社会弹性与对华关系。为应对制造业投资的国家风险,中国政府应配套发展支持性服务业,引导资本流出的同时避免国内产业"空心化",以及加强制造类工业园区建设。而企业则需鼓励伙伴资本进入,选择正确信息来源,重视东道国产业特征与投资项目互补。

In recent years, the scale of the Chinese manufacturing overseas investment is increasingly expanding. Date from CGIT show that the industrial and regional feature of the investment is obviously. And according to the risk calculation by CROIC-IWEP, among the 19 countries, in which Chinese manufacturing investment is concentrated, the economic risks in 9 of them and the non-economic risks in 18 of them could be classified as alert or high-risk levels. In different industries, investments in metal and non-metal manufacturing and chemical manufacturing are generally facing with higher risks; the non-economic risks of food manufacturing industry investments should be concerned; for investments in machinery and electronics and telecommunications industries, more attention should paid to target countries′ social flexibility and relationships with China. To deal with the state-level risks in the target countries invested by Chinese manufacturing, Chinese government should develop corresponding supportive services; avoid industrial hollowing out while guiding capitals flowing out; reinforce the construction of industrial parks of manufacturing. Meanwhile, enterprises should encourage their partners invest in China; choose the right information source; pay more attention to the industrial features of the target countries and complementary investment projects.