新农保减少了来自子女的代际支付吗?——基于CHARLS数据的实证分析

Have NRSP Reduced Children's Upward Transfer?——An Empirical Study Based on Data From CHARLS

利用2013年CHARLS全国跟踪调查数据对新农保对子女代际支付的影响进行研究,发现新农保会减少较低收入子女的现金支付,增加较高收入子女的实物支付。总体上看,新农保对子女的现金支付具有一定的挤出效应,对实物支付具有一定的挤入效应,两种效应相互作用,新农保对子女总支付的挤出效应并不显著,但明显提高了参保老人的经济福利。研究结论表明,以国家公共支付为核心的社会养老与以代际支付为核心的家庭养老相结合,是解决中国农村养老问题的有效途径。

This paper uses data from the CHARLS 2013 Follow-up and studies the effect of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance （ NRSP ） on family generational upward transfer. The results show children-s income is an important moderator to their upward transfer. Children with relatively lower income would not reduce their in-kind upward transfer but would significantly reduce their transfer in cash so that the total upward transfer would be lower than before if their parents join the NRSP . However, children with relatively higher income would not reduce their cash transfer but would significantly increase their in-kind transfer and the total transfer to parents de facto increases. Generally speaking, NRSP crowds out cash transfer but crowds in in-kind transfer from children. Offset by both effects, parents- total transfer from children doesn-t significantly reduce after they join the NRSP . Children-s transfer still works as the main source for the aging parents. Findings demonstrate that a combination of public pension and family upward transfer would make an effective way for the elderly to spend their later lives.