中哈能源消费结构与能源安全关联性对比分析

The correlation analysis between energy consumption structure and energy security in China and Kazakhstan

能源产业作为丝绸之路经济带建设的首推工程,影响丝绸之路经济带建设的整体进程。文章以能源消费结构为切入点,构建能源供应安全和使用安全的指标体系,运用回归方法对比分析了1992年~2013年中哈两国能源消费结构与能源安全的关联性。研究结果表明：两国传统的能源消费结构对能源安全的贡献呈现逐渐下降的趋势;两国能源安全均呈现＂波动上升-波动下降＂演进特征;两国能源安全形势都较为严峻,能源使用安全产生的环境负面效应凸显并逐渐放大。鉴于此,文章以两国能源合作为基础,从区域一体化层面审视并探究两国能源安全合作的深化路径。

Energy industry, as the first engineering construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, influencing the whole process of its construction. The ar-ticle takes the energy consumption structure as the breakthrough point, lay down the energy supply security and the use safety index system, using the re-gression method to analyze the correlation between the energy consumption structure and the energy security during 1992-2013. The results show a trend of gradual decline the contribution to energy security made by bilateral tra-ditional energy consumption structure; the evolution of bilateral energy secu-rity were characteristiced by rising volatility-volatility decline ; bilateral energy security situation are expected to be more serious, energy use security especially, makes highlighted negative effects on environment and even en-larged gradually. So the article takes the bilateral energy cooperation as the foundation, from the regional integration level, in order to examine and ex-plore the deepening path of the two energy security cooperation.