引信可靠性考核的系统性错误及统计检验方法

Systematic Error of Fuze Reliability Test and Statistic Test Principles

针对引信可靠性考核中可靠度单侧置信下限表仍在起决定性作用的乱象,再次证明查该表判断引信可靠性是否达标,或由该表确定抽样方案均为系统性错误,错在该表的"置信度"是拒止置信度,这样做没有法理依据。提出执行GJBz 20119时,将"可靠度-置信度"指标理解为"可靠性-通过置信度"。考核可靠性时,依据GJB 179A制定方案进行抽样检验,或依据GB/T 4088-2008进行假设检验;可靠度单侧置信下限表仅仅用作区间估计或查拒止指标。DRP系列等一些产品和文中实例表明,这样做是可行、可操作的。

Aiming at the fault using of the reliability one-side confidence lower limit table in fuze reliability test,the systematic error was testified when using the table to judge weather the fuze reliability is qualified.In fact,the'confidence'in this table meant'reject confidence',the misusing of the concept was out of legal basis.It was proposed that taking the 'reliability-confidence'index as the 'reliability-passing confidence'when using GJB179 A.The reliability test sample scheme and the hypothesis testing scheme should be made according GJB179 Aand GB/T4088-2008.The reliability one-side confidence lower limit was only used as interval estimation or rejecting index.This practice was testified in DRP serial products examples in this paper.