摘要
针对引信系统复杂、贮存样本量受限、测试数据波动性较大等问题,提出了基于改进GM(1,1)模型的引信系统贮存寿命预测方法。该方法在利用"指数-对数变换"对原始数据预先进行光滑处理的基础上,通过建立GM(1,1)模型和残差修正模型,推导出对引信系统贮存寿命预测的改进算法。实例分析表明,该方法具有预测精度高、适用范围广、通用性强等优点,可推广用于类似系统或设备的寿命预估。
Considering fuze system reliability test data have the features of small sample and large random fluctuations,this paper introduced an improved grey model in fuze storage life forecasting.By smoothing the original data sequence,and building GM models to residuals for updating the forecasting data.The analytic results indicated that the methods were better than the original forecasting method,and were regarded of feasibility and high practice value.
出处
《探测与控制学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第3期86-89,共4页
Journal of Detection & Control
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目资助(2012JM8020)
关键词
引信
寿命预测
指数-对数变换
GM(1
1)模型
残差修正
fuze
life forecasting
power function-logarithm function compound transformation
grey forecasting model
update residuals
