重大工程项目社会稳定风险分级预警模式研究

Classified Pre-warning Model of Social Stability Risk for Major Projects

重大工程项目作为社会生产力高度发展的关键节点,在带动经济、民生和社会发展的同时也带来了法律政策、资源保障、环境安全、公民权益等诸多方面的风险。为确保经济良性发展、社会和谐稳定,实现社会稳定风险的预警预控,通过系统分析方法和风险管理理论完善现有社会稳定风险指标体系,基于3维风险分级模型、最低合理可行准则(ALARP)等风险分级技术,制定出一套针对重大工程项目的社会稳定风险预警模式。以某县民用机场项目为例,辨识出5类18种风险,通过风险分级、风险预控等环节,认为只要采取相应风险控制措施,该项目社会稳定总体风险可接受,但应重点监控环境安全风险的建议。

As a key node in the development of social productivity,major projects bring about not only development of economy,livelihood and the whole society,and a number of risks concerning laws,policies,resource security and environmental security as well. In order to ensure the healthy development of economy,social harmony and stability,and realize classified risk pre-warning,utilizing systematic analysis method and risk management theory,we develop a pre-warning model of social stability risk for major projects based on three-dimensional risk classification model,as low as reasonably practicable( ALARP)and other risk classification technology. Taking the project of XX civil airport as an example,18 risks of5 types are identified,however,through risk classification and risk pre-control,we find that as long as taking corresponding risk control measures,the overall social stability risk is within the acceptable range and environmental security risk is to be intensively monitored.