从飞机与高铁的瑜亮之争看交通工具的替代品威胁

Discussion on Threats of Substitute for Transportation Viewed from the Competition between Aircraft and High-speed Railway

针对高速铁路开通后对相应飞机航线产生冲击,导致航线萎缩、停飞的现象,本文从消费者角度出发,选择了价格、速度、载客量、每日开行班次、安全性、准点率、机场/车站环境与服务、机/车内环境与服务、购退票方式、机场/车站交通接驳便利度等10个指标,并按照重要程度为各指标赋予权重,以京沪线为例,对两种交通工具进行了比较。结果是高铁以相对优势胜出。从而得出结论:在运行时间5—6小时区间内,高铁在性价比上占优,飞机只能立足于更远程的运输市场。同时对飞机运输提出了开辟海岛航线和加大中西部航线等发挥自身优势的建议。

Toward the impact of high-speed railway transportation to aviation market in China, especially in the same routes, this paper analyzed the substitute competition between the two transportations from consumers’ point. 10 indicators including price, speed, passenger capacity, number of runs or flights per day, safety, punctuality rate, environment ＆ service of airports/stations, environment ＆ service in the aircraft/train, booking ＆ refund mode （online or offline）, convenience of access to airport/station, were chosen to evaluate the two transportations, with different weights according to its importance. As the result, the high-speed railway showed a relatively high score, with the example of the route Beijing-Shanghai. And the author drew a conclusion that within a 5 to 6 hours distance, the high-speed railway possesses the superiority on the ratio of performance to price to aircraft. Finally, the author gave some suggestions to the aviation such as pioneering islands air routes and expanding inland routes in China.