日本技术预见发展阶段及其未来趋势分析

Analysis on the Development Stage and Future Trend of Technology Foresight in Japan

作为最早由政府组织实施大规模技术预见的国家,日本技术预见活动已经经历30余年的发展,进行了9次预见实践。本文按照不同时期的特性,将日本技术预见的发展历程划分为3个阶段,分别为起步阶段、发展阶段和成熟阶段,并且从不同维度分析每个阶段的实施流程,并依此归纳出不同阶段的变化及其创新。经过上述分析总结,得出技术预见未来可能的发展趋势。

As the first country to organize the large scale technology foresight by the government, Japan has experienced more than 30 years development of technology foresight, carried on nine times technology foresight practice. According to the characteristics of different phases, this paper divides the development process of Japan’s technology foresight into three stages： the early stage, the development stage and the mature stage. And analyze the process of each stage from different dimensions. Also in accordance with these, the paper sums up the change and innovation of different stages. Through above analysis, it concludes that the possible develop- ment trend of technology foresight in the future.