中国农业碳生产率的分布演进与空间俱乐部收敛研究

Analysis on the dynamic evolution and spatial club convergence of national agricultural carbon productivity

利用核密度函数、收敛理论及空间计量方法对1997—2012年我国大陆31省区的农业碳生产率分布演进规律、收敛趋势、聚类状况和俱乐部特征等进行探究。结果表明:1)全国及三大地区农业碳生产率均呈现明显的增长态势,省域间差异扩大,空间分布上逐渐不均衡化,且由较为明显的"一主三小"的四峰格局演变为"一主一次"的双峰格局,具有多个地区集聚的可能。2)全国农业碳生产率整体不存在σ收敛迹象,而东西部农业碳生产率存在较为明显的σ收敛现象。3)我国农业碳生产率呈现绝对β趋同特征,但收敛速度相对较小,仅有0.65%;同时,空间自相关指数进一步证实我国省域农业碳生产率存在集聚现象,且4个象限不同集聚类型地区的β收敛系数全为负,但仅有H-H和L-L两组表现出较为显著的空间俱乐部收敛趋势。

Kernel density function,convergence theory and spatial econometrics were employed to investigate the convergence trend,agglomeration situation,the spatial club convergence and dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon productivity in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2012.The results show that：1）Agricultural carbon productivity in all regions was notably increased.the spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon productivity became imbalanced gradually.And,four-peak pattern turned into bimodal pattern,and there was a possibility of agglomeration phenomena in multiple regions.2）Taking national agricultural carbon productivity as a whole,there were no signs ofσ convergence,but in eastern and western regions,agricultural carbon productivity is evident inσconvergence phenomenon.3）National agricultural carbon productivity displayed absoluteβconvergence with relatively slow convergence speed 0.65%.Meanwhile,spatial autocorrelation index further confirmed that the agglomeration phenomenon existed in Chinese provincial agricultural carbon productivity,and theβcoefficients of different types of regions in four quadrants were all negative,but only two groups,H-H and L-L,exhibited relatively significant space club convergence trend.