中国羊绒生产区域布局及影响因素研究

Study on the regional distribution and the influence cashmere production China factors

20世纪80年代中期以来,中国羊绒生产布局发生了较大变化,呈现出由南方地区向北方地区集中、由东部地区向西部地区集中的变化趋势。羊绒生产逐渐向经济中等地区和欠发达地区,向农村非农产业发展相对落后和饲草料资源相对丰富的地区转移和集中。笔者通过构建面板数据模型,对1985-2012年中国羊绒生产布局变迁的影响因素进行了研究。结果表明,羊绒和羊肉的比价、政府政策扶持力度、非农产业发展水平、畜牧业综合比较优势、城镇化水平、非农就业机会、运输条件、自然灾害、禁牧政策等都是影响中国羊绒生产布局变迁的因素;从总体上来看,经济因素已经成为影响中国羊绒生产布局变迁的重要因素之一;中国羊绒生产布局逐渐从自然性布局向经济性布局转变。

Since twentieth Century, the middle of 80＇ s, great changes have taken place Chinese cashmere production layout, showing a trend from south to north, from east to west. Cashmere production gradually to the middle economic level areas and underdeveloped ar- eas, relatively abundant to the development of non-agricultural industries in rural areas is relatively backward and forage resources area transfer and concentrate. In this paper, by constructing panel data model, the influencing factors on 1985-2012 years Chinese cashmere production layout change has conducted the empirical study. The results show that, wool and mutton prices, government policy support, the development of non-agricultural industry level, animal husbandry comprehensive comparative advantage, the level of urbanization, non-agricultural employment, transportation conditions, natural disasters, grazing policy are the impact of China cashmere production layout change factors ; from the general point of view, economic factors have become one of the the important factors of cashmere production Chinese change layout, layout of cashmere production China gradually change from natural layout to economic layout.