病险水库除险加固成本效益分析方法

A cost-benefit analysis approach for unsafe reservoir rehabilitation

成本效益分析是病险水库除险加固决策中的一项重要内容。结合某案例水库的除险加固工作,考虑其在长期运行中失事风险随时间变化特征,根据水库失事可能导致的淹没损失,进行现状和除险加固两种情景下的成本效益分析,据此分析案例水库除险加固的必要性。本文采用的成本效益分析可在类似工程除险加固决策中参考应用。

Cost-benefit analysis is an important component in the rehabilitation decision making for reservoir with safety issues. A cost- benefit analysis approach is expatiated by taking one reservoir rehabilitation project as an example. Dam failure probabilities with time and dam breach risks are analyzed. Two scenarios with and without rehabilitation are analyzed following the suggested methods including dam breach flood inundation and economic loss analyses. The results of cost- benefit analysis indicate that it is necessary to conduct rehabilitation of the example reservoir. The proposed cost- benefit analysis approach is suitable to be used in other reservoir rehabilitation decisions.