北京城市暴雨预警及应急管理现状与挑战

Current situation and challenges of rainstorm warning system and emergency response management in urban region of Beijing

暴雨内涝预警及应急响应管理是城市防汛工作的热点和难点。分析了北京市暴雨内涝灾害成因以及为降低其危害而实施的暴雨预警和应急响应管理工作;虽然北京市在细化预警指标、分区预警和网格化管理等方面取得了一定成果,但是还存在预警发布频率高,短历时暴雨预警不及时,阈值标准缺少灵活性,应急响应主要依靠经验等问题。提出了从科学确定致灾因子指标,提升暴雨预报精度,分区调整预警指标,提高应急响应针对性等方面进行改进的建议,为暴雨预警和内涝应急管理提供重要技术支撑。

Both the rainstorm warning and the emergency response for flood disasters are the important nonstructural measures in urban flood- control management. These contents were included in this study such as the overview, the achievement, the current challenge and the future improvement in the early warning and the emergency response managements to prevent flood disasters in Beijing urban area. In the overview, flood disaster frequency, the rainstorm warning indicators, as well as emergency response system were introduced. Although some improvements were attained, there were some problems that remain unsolved.（1） The frequency of issuing storm warning signals was much higher than the frequency of the urban flood during flood seasons.（2）Some storm warning signals were delayed.（3） The universal threshold values were not suitable.（4） The subjective experiences from flood-control department played important roles in the emergency response system. To address these issues,the improvement approaches were provided, including determining indicators for disaster- causing factors,enhancing rainstorm prediction accuracy, adjusting warning indicators for different regions, as well as improving pertinences of the emergency response management. Achievements mentioned above provide important technical supports for rainstorm warning and emergency response managements in urban regions.