2009-2013年浙江省绍兴市肺癌发病率及时间趋势分析

Incidence and its time trend analysis on lung cancer during 2009-2013 in Shaoxing, Zhejiang

目的分析绍兴市肺癌的发病现状及其时间变化趋势。方法利用2009-2013年绍兴市居民肺癌监测数据进行横断面研究，监测覆盖人口为21970825人年，其中男性为10993657人年，女性为10977168人年。计算肺癌的发病率、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）及变化百分比等指标；采用对数直线回归法估算发病率的年度变化百分比（APC）进行时间趋势分析。结果2009-2013年绍兴市检出肺癌9973例，男、女性比例为2．44：1，发病率为45．39／10万（男性64．35／10万，女性26．41／10万），中标率为20．09／10万（男性28．37／10万，女性11．66／10万），世标率为27．26／10万（男性38．73／10万，女性陋73／10万）；0-74岁累积发病率为3．40％（男性4．80％，女性1．91％），35～64岁截缩率为39．90／10万（男性54．44／10万，女性24．81／10万）。2009-2013年肺癌发病率南34．29／10万上升至59．91／10万，APC值为13．88％（P=0．006），中标率和世标率的APC值分别为7．14％（P=0．030）和7．57％（P=0．024）；其中男性发病率由50．60／10万上升至82．91／10万，APC值为12．52％（P=0．011），女性发病率由17．81／10万上升至36．78／10万，APC值为17．70％（P=0．005）。绍兴市居民肺癌发病率45岁后明显上升，80～岁组达到高峰值（271．14／10万），除15～岁组和20～岁组外，各年龄组肺癌发病率男性均高于女性。结论绍兴市肺癌发病率呈现逐年上升趋势，45岁及以上男性是肺癌的高发人群，65岁及以上女性肺癌的发病率上升较快，应引起重视。

Objective To analyze the detection rate of lung cancer during 2009-2013 in Shaoxing of Zhejiang province and its time trend. Methods The data of lung cancer in Shaoxing from 2009 to 2013 with a total coverage population of 21 970 825 person-year （male 10 993 657 person-year, female 10 977 168 person-year）, was collected to calculate the detection rate, age adjusted detection rate, percentage change of incidence （PC）, etc. The annual percentage change （APC） of incidence was estimated by linear regression based on the logarithm of the incidence rates observed. Results During 2009-2013, a total of 9 973 new cases were diagnosed as lung cancer with the sex ratio of male to female being 2.44 ： 1. The detection rate of lung cancer was 45.39/100 000 （male 64.35/100 000, female 26.41/100 000）, age-standardized detection rate by Chinese standard population （ASR China） was 20.09/100 000 （male 28.37/100 000, female 11.66/ 100 000）, age-standardized detection rate by world standard population （ASR world） was 27.26/100 000 （male 37.83/100 000, female 15.73/100 000）. The cumulative rate and truncated rate of those aged 0-74 and 35-64 were 3.40% （male 4.80%, female 1.91%） and 39.90/100 000 （male 54.44/100 000, female 24.81/ 100 000）. The detection rate of lung cancer increased from 34.29/100 000 in 2009 to 59.91/100 000 （APC= 13.88%, P=0.006〈0.05）, among males the detection rate increased from 50.60/100 000 to 82.91/100 000 （APC=12.52%, P=0.011〈0.05）, and the female detection rate increased from 17.81/100 000 to 36.78/ 100 000 （APC=17.70%, P=0.005〈0.05）. In Shaoxing, the detection rate of lung cancer increased obviouslyamong the residents over 45 years of age. For each age group except 15- and 20-, the male detection rate was higher than the female incidence. Conclusion The men who were 45 years and older were at a higher risk of lung cancer in Shaoxing. The detection rate of lung cancer increased year by year from 2009 to 2013 in Shaoxing, espeeially among women over 65 years of age.