我国人口结构变化对经济转型的影响

The Impact of China's Population Structure Change on Economic Transformation

人口问题已成为影响经济增长和经济转型的重要问题之一,特别是我国自2000年迈入老龄化社会以来,人口结构变化对经济转型的影响越来越大。本文主要研究人口结构与经济转型的关系,在构建相关指标基础上,利用我国省际面板数据,建立PVAR模型,对我国人口结构变化对经济转型的影响进行实证分析。研究认为,当人口结构由红利型向老龄化转变时,这一过程将会推动经济向消费驱动的增长方式转变,促进产业结构的服务化,产业结构调整在这一过程中对经济增长方式转变有显著的推动作用,同时还应注意到产业结构对人口结构的影响。

The population has become one of the important issues that affect economic growth and transfor- mation, especially since China entered the aging society in 2000, the impact of population structure change on economic transformation is growing. This paper studies the relationship between population structure change and economic transition. On the basis of designing related indicators, this paper analyzes empirical- ly the impact of China＇ s population structure changes on its economic transition, with using China＇ s provin- cial panel data to establish the panel VAR model. This paper draws the following conclusion ： when chang- ing from demographic dividend to aging society, this process will promote the economy to a consump- tion-driven growth pattern, and promote service-oriented industrial structure. The adjustment of industrial structure plays significant positive role in promoting the change of economic growth pattern, meanwhile we should note the impact of industrial structure on the population structure.