结构负利:流通业比重与地区经济增长

STRUCTURAL BURDEN:THE PROPORTION OF THE DISTRIBUTION SECTOR AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

作为国民经济中的基础性和先导性产业,流通业在国民经济中的比重呈现先下降后上升的U型演变趋势。本文利用扩展的索罗模型和中国省际地区面板数据探讨流通业比重变化对地区总体生产率和经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,首先,地区总体生产率与流通业比重呈显著的负相关关系。其次,地区人均产出增长率与当期流通业比重呈负相关关系,而与上期流通业比重呈正相关关系。流通业比重对地区人均产出增长率的净效应既受到地区总体生产率与流通业比重之间负向关系的影响,也受到地区经济增长收敛性的影响。根据模拟实验,2009—2014年中国流通业比重上升导致人均产出增长率约下降1.36个百分点。最后,地区流通效率在"流通业比重—总体生产率—经济增长"关系中发挥着明显的调节作用。在流通效率越高的地区,流通业比重上升对地区总体生产率和地区人均产出增长率的负向作用越弱。因此,地方政府可以通过提高本地区流通效率来缓解流通业比重上升带来的"结构负利"。

The proportion of the distribution sector, a fundamental and guiding industry of the national economy, declines firstly and then increases gradually, presenting a U-shape trend. This paper explores the impact of its variation on regional total factor productivity （TFP） and on regional economic growth, by using augmented Solow model and Chinese provincial panel data. Results show that, firstly, there is a significant negative relationship between the proportion of the distribution sector and regional aggregate productivity. Secondly, the growth rate of real per capita output has a negative relationship with current proportion of distribution sector, while has a positive relationship with previous proportion. The net effect of the proportion on economic growth not only depended on the negative relationship between the proportion and regional TFP, but also depended on the convergence of regional economic growth. According to simulation experiment, the rise of the proportion lowers the growth rate of real per capita output by 1.36 percentage points. Finally, distribution efficiency mediates the effects of the proportion on regional aggregate TFP and economic growth. Therefore, local government can lighten ＂structural burden＂ by improving regional distribution efficiency.