地方政府债务置换的国际经验、方案述评和推进建议

The Research on the International Experience, Program Review and Suggestion of the Local Government Debt Swap

近年来随着我国地方政府债务规模的不断增长,地方政府债务风险受到国内外的广泛关注,成为我国经济发展中面临的主要潜在风险之一。为有效化解地方政府债务风险,有关部门出台政策,允许在未来数年通过发行地方政府债务等方式对地方政府存量债务进行置换。本文充分借鉴国际经验,立足我国实际,评述了目前地方政府债务置换的主要方案,提出向市场公开发行债务为主、尝试发行特别国债及点对点置换为补充、央行发挥积极作用的多元动态优化建议,为采取更科学、平稳、负面效应最小化的债务置换方案提供理论和实证依据。

In recent years, as the continuous growth of the local government debt scale in China, its potential risk has become one of the major concerns in China＇ s economic development. To reduce the risk effectively, some policies have been implemented to replace the existing debt through issuing local government bonds in the future years. Based on the in- ternational experience and the situation in China, this paper remarks the major programs of the local government debt swap and suggests solving the problem by using a series of multiple and dynamic methods, which include issuing bonds in open market as main, trying special treasury bonds and using point-to-point swap as supplemental. It especially suggests the positive role which the central bank should play in this process. This paper also provides some theoretical and empirical ev- idences for implementing a much more scientific, stabilized and negative-effects-minimized debt swap scheme.