柳州市可持续发展系统动力学仿真

Dynamic simulation for the sustainable development of Liuzhou City

新型城镇化不仅要求城乡一体化发展,还强调生态环境的保护,以实现社会经济的可持续发展。以柳州市为例,基于系统动力学方法构建了人口、经济、资源和环境四个子系统构成的城市可持续发展系统仿真模型,设定了自然发展型、产业驱动型、环境驱动型和协调发展型四种模式并对其进分别行了动态仿真。结果显示,选择协调发展型将更有利于柳州市的可持续发展和新型城镇化的推进。

The new - type urbanization not only requires the integration development of urban and rural, but also emphasizes the ecological environmental protection so as to realize the sustainable development of social economic. This essay firstly takes Liuzhou City for example, and builds a simulation model of urban sustainable development system in which includes four subsystems, such as population, economy, resources and environment. And then this essay carries out the dynamic simulation and numerical analysis, under four modes of development： natural developing mode, industry driven mode, environment driven mode and coordinate developing mode. Simulation results show that Liuzhou City should choose the coordinate developing mode to realize the sustainable development and promote the new - type urbanization effectively.