陕西省气候变化及其气候生产潜力的时空变化

Spatial-temporal changing characteristics of climate and its potential productivity in Shaanxi Province

利用陕西省及其周边44个气象站点1955—2013年气象资料分析了该区域的平均气温、降水量的时空变化规律;利用Thornthwaite memorial模型并结合EOF、R/S分析以及相关分析对陕西省气候生产潜力时空序列进行研究,在此基础上探讨了陕西省的气候资源利用率情况。结果表明:1)59年来陕西省气温呈增加趋势,为0.19℃/10年,年降水量下降率为0.84 mm/10年;2)陕西省的气候生产潜力微弱增加,上升率为1.31kg/(10年·hm^2),区域差异性明显,东南高,中部偏西区域低;3)农业气候生产潜力主要受到降水量和气温的制约,其中降水量居于主要限制地位,气候生产潜力大约有94%受到气温和降水的共同影响的,未来气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。59年来,陕西省粮食产量与气候生产潜力的相关性不显著,但两者的波动特点相似,其气候利用率逐年代增加,研究区未来仍存在作物可能增产空间。

Using the annual mean temperature and precipitation data from 44 meteorological observatories during1955—2013,the evapotranspiration climate productive potential（TSPV）of Shaanxi province was analyzed by Thornthwaite Memoriai model.The results,which obtained on the basis of EOF analysis,R/S analysis and correlation analysis,showed that the annual mean temperature increases by 0.19 ℃/decade while the annual mean precipitation decrease by 0.84mm/decade.The climate productivity slightly increased from the south-west to north-east region by the mean year by 1.31 kg/hm^2.It showed significant correlation among climate productivity,temperature and precipitation.Besides,precipitation was a limited factor of climate productivity.The future climatic potential productivity is booming.The relevance between grain output and climatic productive potential is not remarkable.However,they displayed similar fluctuate pattern for an extended period of 59 years.The increasing of climatic efficiency year by year gives opportunity to the growth at an exciting weather condition.