中国交通运输基础设施资本存量及资本回报率估算

Estimation of Capital Stock and Capital Return Rate of China's Transportation Infrastructure

资本存量和资本回报率的估算是交通运输基础设施投资的重要指导,也是研究交通运输基础设施对经济增长影响的基础。在现有研究的基础上,界定了交通运输基础设施的范围,利用永续盘存法估算了1978-2013年全国层面和1986-2013年分省的资本存量,进而计算了1979-2013年全国层面和1986-2013年分省的交通运输基础设施的资本回报率。估算结果显示,我国交通运输基础设施投资回报率已经处在低位。

The estimation of capital stock and capital return rate is both an important guide to the investment in the transportation infrastructures and a foundation for the research of the impact of transportation infrastructure on the economic growth. On the basis of the existing researches, this paper defines the scope of the transportation infrastructures and estimates the capital sock nationwide during the period of 1978-2013 and at the provincial level during the period of 1986-2013 with the perpetual inventory approach, then it further estimates the rate of capital return on transportation infrastructure investment nationwide during the period of 1979-2013 and at provincial level during the period of 1986-2013. The results indicate that the rate of capital return on China＇s transportation infrastructure is at the lower level in recent years.